Will the Revolution in Egypt ever end?

When I arrived in Egypt in 2007 President Hosni Mubarak was in power and had been for a VERY long time.

Many Egyptians didn't have work; health care and education were not good, if they existed at all, for a large proportion of the population; wages were exceptionally low for those with jobs (unless they were in high level jobs - which needed a good education - where salaries could be quite excessive); freedom of speech was discouraged and could land you in a lot of trouble; freedom of movement around the country was curtailed (it was almost impossible for an Egyptian to get into a tourist area unless he had a job, family or business there or was rich enough to afford to actually stay in one of the tourist hotels). The wealthy and well-pain would tell you that Egypt was a 'free country' but that was not the reality for the majority of the population.

On the other hand petrol and diesel were REALLY cheap (in 2007 I paid LE1.25 per litre for petrol - at the time around £0.13 Sterling) as were bread, food and local transport.

There was an amazingly large gap between rich and poor with the rich getting richer and the poor not moving at all.

People wanted change. They wanted an end to government corruption and a better life for themselves and their children. In short, they wanted a better share of the cake, better health care, better education, better job prospects. They also wanted to live their lives the way THEY want to live and not the way the government decided they should live. They wanted the freedom to go wherever they wanted in THEIR OWN country when they wanted. They also viewed the corruption of the past within the government as a form of stealing from the masses and they wanted this money returned to the general population.

Who can blame them?

So, against all the odds and risking imprisonment or worse for actually airing their views, which would be seen as anti-Mubarak and carry heavy penalties, they actually got themselves organised to form a demonstration in Tahrir Square.

They used social networking and mobile phones to organise themselves and finally they all got together in key areas like Tahrir Square in Cairo and the main streets of Alexandria. It is noteworthy at this time that Mubarak's government managed to cut off all external communications. The internet in Egypt was down for several days (by order of the government) and mobile phones could only make strictly local (i.e. within the same town) calls. No international calls could be made or received neither could any calls between the cities. SMS was also restricted to local recipients. If your friend travelled to another city you could no longer call him/her!!!

However, the rest is history now. Mubarak was toppled.

Then followed a strange sort of hiatus. The military took control but promised free and fair elections while the wheels of democracy were supposedly built and honed ready for the New Egypt to emerge. The mood was expectant.

This was a strange time. No-one liked the ruling military council but could not see any other way. However, every time they made any decision at all there would be new demonstrations in the streets and squares of the major cities. Fortunately, the tourist areas remained quiet.

Sadly, however, the pictures on the international news channels discouraged potential tourists from coming to Egypt - they simply found other places to go. During the revolution itself many countries actually evacuated all their nationals and halted all flights to Egypt until some form of 'normality' was restored.

This was exceptionally painful for the very large number of Egyptians working in tourism. Many of the hotels and tourist centres closed and the staff in other hotels were being laid off without pay.

So, the poor just got even poorer.

Nonetheless, people were optimistic. Elections were planned and they were sure that once these elections were over the tourists would come flooding back and they would see a new era dawning.

It became obvious quite early on to the educated (who took advantage of the fact) and to outsiders that many Egyptians simply did not understand the democratic election process. In the early elections for the Lower House a large proportion of the population turned out to vote. The campaign had, from a foreign point of view, been quite interesting with all the candidates adopting a unique symbol - an aeroplane, an iron, a cup of coffee, a palm tree, a jeep, a food mixer, etc. The reason was, on reflection, quite obvious. With such high levels of illiteracy how could people know whose name to check on the ballot paper without a symbol to help them.

The wealthy and the organised (like the Salafis or Muslim Brotherhood) encouraged everyone to vote but did not seem to interfere too much in persuading them who to vote for.

Then came the elections for the Upper House. Again there was a high turn out but with slightly more pressure from the wealthy and the organised about who to vote for.

It came as no surprise when the Muslim Brotherhood gained a large proportion of the seats in both houses but it did worry some as there was much talk about the imposition of Sharia Law in Egypt.

Tourists DID NOT come like before. The people were very disappointed. Some hotels managed to re-open but by no means all. The increasing tourism of previous years meant that many hotels were under construction - this work stopped now. There were no more jobs and people were no better off than before - in fact many people found themselves worse off.

But Egyptians are nothing if not optimistic. They would often say to anyone who asked that Sharia Law cannot happen here because the people won't let it. And they prayed for tourism to increase at least to former levels. They would then tell you that the coming year would be a good one and people will always come back to Egypt.

Unfortunately it seems they were wrong. Tourism in the first quarter of 2012 was only 25% of the tourism in the same period of 2011. We must remember here that the revolution effectively cancelled ALL tourism for 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2011 and that overall tourism in 2011 was down by 32% on 2010 levels. You don't need to be a member of MENSA to realise that business in 2012 was VERY poor indeed. In fact, local Egyptian newspapers recently described the tourism industry here as being on the verge of collapse.

Many people did not get their jobs back, as they had hoped, and hotels did not re-open en masse.

Rather, more pain and suffering was inflicted on the people of Egypt. Since the presidential elections there is a fuel shortage. The result of this where I am living is that you can only buy petrol or diesel twice a week and the price has rocketed. There have been reports of retailers charging more than LE4 per litre against the LE1.25 of before. The bottles of butane gas used for cooking were previously LE7 to exchange. However, with the present shortage you can only find butane once a week and can be charged up to LE100 for the same exchange. There is a lack of fuel for the local power station which means that there are regular blackouts in the town.

Increased fuel costs can only mean one thing. The cost of EVERYTHING goes up. So everything is more expensive now but incomes have gone down. It's a case of the poor now being much poorer than before which is not what they bought into during the revolution.

But they hang on in there for the day when the tourists will come back.

Personally I don't see this happening yet because the revolution doesn't really seem to be over.

We still have large crowds in Tahrir Square, on the streets of Alexandria and the key cities of Ismalia, Port Said and Suez mounting protests at anything and everything that they believe restricts their freedoms or impoverishes them further. Only a few days ago there was a major riot which resulted in President Morsi declaring a State of Emergency in Ismalia, Port Said and Suez following several deaths related to the demonstrations there.

The problem here is that the violent clashes and deaths in these far-flung but important cities are NEWSWORTHY. This is what people around the world see on their TV screens or social media and hear on their radios. These are the images that stick in their minds. This is what they think about when they are sitting comfortably in their lounge at home or in the travel agent's shop trying to book their holiday. With all this in on your mind would you really book a holiday to Egypt?

The answer is obviously a resounding "NO" because people are simply NOT coming here.

Those who have already been during more peaceful times and understand the lie of the land are contacting their friends living here and actually asking us if it's safe in the local area. I live in a touristic area and IT IS SAFE HERE - PLEASE DO COME. Nothing bad will happen to you here.

On the other hand I think it is clear to the whole international community that the revolution in Egypt is far from over yet.

I support the Egyptian people in their dreams for themselves and their families. They deserve to experience real personal freedoms with good education and healthcare for all, affordable food and housing and many of the other enviable benefits they perceive that those outside Egypt enjoy.

But if they are relying on tourism to boost the jobs available and their household incomes then they really need to bring the revolution to a close so that the pictures on the TV screens around the world are of a peaceful and stable Egypt. Then the tourists WILL come back.

After all, EGYPT HAS IT ALL - culture, sunshine, the Red Sea, a beautiful desert. It is an ideal place to relax and enjoy some time away from the rat-race faced by many in other countries.

So, when will this happen? Who can say? I certainly can't but I do hope it will be VERY SOON.

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For those interested in statistics and more technical information please continue reading.

TOURISM STATISTICS

Year	Number of Tourists	Income from Tourism	Notes
2008	12.8million	$11billion
2009	11.9million	$10.5billion
2010	14million	$11.5billion
2011	10million	$9billion	Revolution started in January and "ended" in February

NOTES

Official reports and statistics show tourism fell by 32% in 2011 following the revolution. However, businesses working within tourism reported a much larger decline. They suggest that official figures were propped up by counting all the Libyans, Sudanese and Palestinians who fled to Egypt during crises in their own countries and that they are not really part of the normal tourism.

This problem arises because when calculating the official figures the authority responsible for collecting the information (the Central Authority for Public Mobilization and Statistics) relies on data from airports and border controls. This means that ANY non Egyptian who enters the country with a visa (which can usually be purchased at the point of entry) is considered a tourist.

Tourists from Europe and Russian have always been the mainstay of the industry in Egypt and 2011 saw these figures fall quite dramatically. For example, tourists from Europe accounted for 11.1million of the 14million visitors inn 2010. This figure dropped to 7.2million in 2011, down by 35%.

Calculations of tourist spending shows that the average dropped from $85 per tourist per day in 2010 to just $72 per tourist per day in 2011. Coupled with the decrease in the number of tourists this had a significant financial impact on the industry.

Many directly involved in the industry at high levels claim that the situation would have been very much worse were it not for the fact that during 2011 prices were slashed quite dramatically throughout the country.

Egypt earns most of its foreign currency from tourism with contributions via remittances from Egyptians living abroad and revenues from the Suez Canal. The steep decline in tourism returns in 2011 saw the foreign currency reserves halved to just $18billion by the end of the year.

Even the Tourism Minister, Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour, is concerned about the ongoing situation and is quoted as saying, "The impact of the revolution has been dramatic on tourist inflow and on the level of prices".

Figures for 2012 are not yet available. Official figures for the 1^st quarter showed tourism down 25% on 2011. Hoteliers throughout the Red Sea are reporting average occupancy rates for 2012 as between 45% and 50% with some hotels having closed completely. Other official surveys have highlighted that during 2012 the average daily spend for those tourists who did come was only $50 per day.

ELECTION PROCESS IN EGYPT

Extracts courtesy of Wikipedia:

THE LOWER HOUSE - People's Assembly

Turnout was between 62% and 65%

The election was conducted under a parallel voting system. Two-thirds of seats were elected by party-list proportional representation. The remaining one-third were elected under a form of bloc voting in two-seat constituencies.

The election to the People's Assembly took place on the following dates:^[17]

·                    first stage: 28–29 November, run-off on 5–6 December;

·                    second stage: 14–15 December, run-off on 21–22 December;

·                    third stage: 3–4 January, run-off on 10–11 January.

There are a total 508 seats in the Lower house: 498 seats are elected, and 10 seats appointed, in this case, by the Military Council, and usually by the President.

Under the parallel voting system used, out of 498 total seats, two-thirds, meaning 332, were elected by means of party list proportional representation. For these seats the public voted for parties or coalition-lists and the result was determined by the largest remainder method with a 0.5 percent threshold, in 46 districts.

The remaining 166 seats were elected by bloc voting in two-seat constituencies, with the possibility of a run off. In the election voters each cast two votes, which could not be for the same individual. 

[Author's note: Rules were introduced to ensure that farmers and labourers were included in the process and achieved seats in the People's Assembly.  Organised political parties had to field at least 1 woman candidate.]

THE UPPER HOUSE - Shura Council

Turnout was around 12.2% with many citizens boycotting the election citing it as a waste of time.

At the time of the election the Shura Council had 270 seats, of which 90 were appointed and 180 elected. Of the 180 elected seats, 60 were elected by majority voting in single-member constituencies, and 120 by proportional representation based on the total number of votes cast in the constituencies. Voting was compulsory for men, with a potential £20 fine for non-voters.

Party lists had to include at least one woman candidate, and had to pass a 0.5% electoral threshold to win a proportional representation seat. For the constituency seats, candidates were required to win over 50% of the vote and for there to be either a farmer or worker elected from their constituency in order to be elected in the first round. Run-offs would be when no candidate won over 50% of the vote in a constituency, and in cases where two candidates achieved over 50%, but neither of them were workers or farmers, the candidate with the highest number of votes would be declared elected, and a run-off held between the highest ranking workers and farmers.

 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Turnout around 43%.

The presidential election was a two-tier process. After the first round if no candidate had achieved more than 50% of the vote there would be a run-off between the two leading candidates.

  

The first round took place on 23 and 24 May 2012. There was no clear winner from the first round so there would have to be a run-off between the leading candidates; Mohamed Mursi (Muslim Brotherhood) and Ahmed Shafiq (former Senior Commander in the Air Force and interim Prime Minister from 31 January 2011 to 3 March 2011 appointed by Mubarak in response to the uprising).

The final result was very close with 51.7% recorded for Mohamed Mursi and 48.3% for Ahmed Shafiq. To this day there are those who still believe the election was somehow 'rigged'.

A very large proportion of the population refrained from voting because they did not believe either candidate was suitable to be their President.

On the Buses!

Ok. I’ve had a go about taxis and about driving in general in Egypt. It seems like a good idea to round this off with my thoughts on buses here. In this I am speaking from experience. As I no longer work for a travel company, I no longer have a car available so my options are walk, taxi or bus. Taxis we’ve already covered!!!!!

I have used the buses here for local travel around Hurghada and for longer trips such as Cairo (about 7 hours) and Safaga (about 45 minutes).

There are two kinds of buses here. There are the ‘big’ buses run by specialist bus companies. These buses operate the longer popular routes such as from Hurghada to Cairo, Alexandria or Luxor. These tend to be old coaches which still have functioning air conditioning. There are several companies to choose from so you have to research first which one will give you the best value for money and the most convenient travel schedule for your needs. They tend to stop in different places in the destination city as well so you may want to take a more expensive ride if it stops nearer to where you really want to be at the other end. On the long journey they mostly serve you with a ‘doggy bag’ containing cakes or bread and something (don’t get excited – this doesn’t come anywhere near a full mean) and a carton of drink (a very small one!). Some provide water as well. The idea here, just like at home really, is that before travel (anytime from a few weeks ahead to a few minutes ahead) you call in at the office and book and pay for your ticket which you need to keep safely until you get on the bus. They have rules about luggage but you can certainly take at least 1 large case and 1 small case (that would probably pass as hand luggage on an aircraft) with you. Tickets are ‘first come, first served’ so if you leave it until the moment you want to go and you plan to travel at a popular time you might be unlucky. I found this is actually quite a relaxed way to travel as long as you don’t let yourself have nightmares about the general standard of driving (see previous blog). You get a relatively comfortable seat – at least as comfortable as a flight – some light refreshments and you can sit back, relax and enjoy the scenery or not off to sleep.

For between 1/3 and ¼ the cost of these buses you can take your chances on the shared minibus service. These are operated by individuals and there is no chance of pre-booking a ticket. They don’t have a schedule either. Basically, they all operate from a single ‘bus station’ on the outskirts of Hurghada. When you need to travel you make your way there and look for the section where the buses will go to your desired destination. All the destinations are marked but are in ARABIC, so it pays to know what the word looks like in the local lingo. Many of the drivers speak little or no English so it also pays to know what your destination sounds like! Remember, not all place names are the same. For example, Hurghada locally is known as El Gardaka, Alexandria is Iskandria and Cairo is Cahira. Once you’ve found the right area of the bus station you will be directed to a vehicle which will be the next one to leave. There is no set time for it to leave. It will be a Toyota minibus, very old with a rather special and innovative air conditioning system called windows. If you’re lucky the windows will actually work and you will be able to open or close the one nearest you to suit. If you are VERY lucky the door will also work. In winter they travel with the door closed but in summer don’t be surprised to find they tie the door back to be permanently open. This assists with the air conditioning. These vehicles take 14 passengers and you simply wait until it’s full. Once there are 14 of you off you go. There are no rules about luggage but space is very limited and any luggage you take will be placed on top of the vehicle. There is a ‘kind of’ roof rack but nothing is secured in any way and relies on gravity to stay put. If you are in a hurry and want to leave right away the driver will be happy to oblige as long as you pay for all the empty seats. If you want a private journey you have to pay for 14 seats. If there are already 5 people on board (including you) then you pay for 9 seats and so on. These mini-buses are the same ones used for local travel around Hurghada. While they are fine for around town spending 6 or 7 hours in one can be a killer.

For some of the closer destinations you may be directed to an area where you will find a number of old Peugeot 504s parked up. These are 8-seaters, including the driver, and when you first see them you can’t help wondering how they manage to make it out of the car park let alone to your desired destination. They operate in just the same way – wait until they are full then off you go. Again, if you are in a hurry they will go immediately if you pay for the empty seats. Some have air conditioning but don’t count on it. In some of these even the windows and doors don’t work properly. Even if your window works their may be only 1 window winding handle for everyone so you have to ask the driver to pass it to you if you want to open/close your window. Really, your Egyptian experience isn’t complete until you’ve travelled in one of these. They are the same vehicles you will find working as official airport taxis from Hurghada International Airport although the airport taxis do tend to have fully operational windows and doors.

Whether you end up in a mini bus or a Peugeot have a good look around you. The key word here is 'accessorize'. In fact, more than that. Let’s say accessorize, accessorize, accessorize. They have covers over the dashboard with tassels hanging down, things hanging behind the mirror, air fresheners hanging around (thank goodness), all sorts of mirrors attached all over the place, photos of family in fancy frames stuck on the dashboard or roof and decorated sayings from the Qu’ran all over the place. Some more than others but they all seem to love the accessories.

In either case, mini bus or Peugeot, as a foreigner you will often be asked if you want “special”. By this they are indicating that they will provide a private service just for you and you need to negotiate a price. Beware; this could be more expensive than taking the more comfortable coaches I have talked about earlier.

Getting around Hurghada by bus can be lots of fun. The buses are old Toyota minibuses just like the shared taxis service above. However, they tend to be a bit newer. In fact just recently some very new ones have been appearing on the local bus routes! These are often also accessorized and are run by individuals. Again, there is no schedule but there are plenty of them and they do run 24 hours a day. If you don’t understand Arabic you probably need to take your first couple of bus rides with a local. Many of the drivers either don’t speak English at all or have a very limited amount of English.

There are formal fixed routes for the buses and they have to display their route number. However, some only display this number in Arabic – well actually not in Arabic. It’s one of life’s conundrums that in Europe we use Arabic numbers so it’s an inverted logic that of course they don’t use Arabic numerals in a country where they speak Arabic. Instead they’ve opted for Persian numerals. The only numbers you can rely on that look like Arabic numerals and mean the same are 1 and 9! Fortunately, most of the buses also have the route number in Arabic numerals for you to understand and, in Hurghada at any rate, are colour coded. For example, those buses running route 6 have a grey band and those running route 5 a red band and so on. Be warned, they have NOT translated the destinations and the fares for each destination into English.

Bus travel is extremely cheap – typically about 1/20th the cost of taking a taxi to the same destination. For buses you need to have some very small change available. I’m talking about bus fares from LE0.25 to a maximum of LE3.00 so they won’t thank you for trying to pay with a LE20 note.

You need to tell the driver where you want to go and try to give him the correct fare if possible. Most locals know the fares and can advise you before you get on the bus. The vast majority of bus drivers are honest and will charge you correctly. However there are a few out there who definitely try it on. I’ve seen guests from a hotel get on the bus just outside the hotel. They’ve taken a LE0.50 journey and they’ve been asked to pay €5 each.

The other catch is that if you don’t know where the place is you need to get to you won’t know when to get off the bus. Unless you can make yourself well enough understood with the driver that he knows he needs to tell you when you get there you have to work it out for yourself. Even if he does understand he needs to let you know when you arrive he will most likely forget.

Do allow plenty of time for bus journey compared to other forms of transport. There are proper but stops but don’t be fooled. They are used but they are not the only stops. Generally, as I mentioned before in a previous blog, Egyptians don’t like to walk. So, they get to the nearest point on the bus route and just wait. When they see the bus they signal that they want it to stop. If there are free seats the bus stops and they get on. It’s quite possible that the bus will stop every 10m or 15m for someone new to get on or off. When you want to get off you just call out to the driver who will pull over straight away to let you out.

Driving is, well, driving in Egypt and air conditioning it windows and doors – in summer the door will be fixed open because health and safety is not a common concept in Egypt. There is often a ‘helper’ on board to take fares – usually an older child or a young teen. They don’t use a proper seat once the bus is full but perch anywhere they can. Sometimes, if the door is open they stand on the step and hang on to the roof-rack! During the summer at busy times some of the passengers travel this way too. I have seen buses with up to 3 people hanging on in this way.

This all seems very daunting at first but you do get used to it. Seems normal to me now!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hope you find this useful.